tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-796169656211771238.post1524837545116606771..comments2022-03-26T08:29:44.266-07:00Comments on Making Progress: Predicting the timing of cultural changes?Burgess Laughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13865479709475171678noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-796169656211771238.post-90807518901876595332008-11-02T17:10:00.000-08:002008-11-02T17:10:00.000-08:00Hi Burgess,By some coincidence Keith Windschuttle ...Hi Burgess,<BR/><BR/>By some coincidence Keith Windschuttle as published an <A HREF="http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb3345/is_10_26/ai_n29440901/pg_1?tag=artBody;col1" REL="nofollow">article</A> on the abolition of the slave trade in England. It too several decades, and its progress was considerably slowed &/or accelerated by a number of historical events involving France and America.<BR/><BR/>It is perhaps a ten minute read.Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02479600882274172677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-796169656211771238.post-21965567078783991882008-11-01T06:00:00.000-07:002008-11-01T06:00:00.000-07:00Also, experts are notorious for getting it wrong. ...Also, experts are notorious for getting it wrong. Here's a link to a New Yorker article describing how political experts are no better at predicting political outcomes than most folks: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1<BR/><BR/>Similarly, I've learned to take weather forecasts with a grain of salt. More than once, I've stayed in to avoid rain that never happened, and at other times gotten rained on when I wasn't expecting it.<BR/><BR/>My conclusion is that some dynamic processes are inherently unpredictable and surprising.<BR/><BR/>Tom BarronGreenSkinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10268887242424054932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-796169656211771238.post-2377689836741168192008-10-24T07:46:00.000-07:002008-10-24T07:46:00.000-07:00Hi Burgess,I have two thoughts for you. One is the...Hi Burgess,<BR/><BR/>I have two thoughts for you. One is the difficulty in quantification and the second is the difficulty of complex dynamics.<BR/><BR/>First the prediction of timing in an inherently more complex task conceptually. That is, one must have more information about a system to be able to predict timing. One must be able to quantify the magnitude effects. Consider a car heading for a tree. I can assess its direction, I can assess that it has velocity (without knowing it's magnitude), and I can project its trajectory out in time. However, to tell you when it hits, I will have to konw it's exact velocity, and be able to measure any changes to that velocity from things such as the driver applying the brakes. So it woudl follow that many people can conceptually amass enough proper information to tell you what will happen, but still not have enough information to tell you when.<BR/><BR/>The second idea is that one has a much tougher time predicting systems that specifically have changing dynamics, i.e. accelerations, and decelerations. In physics those are "higher order" systems. For instance, imagine a baseball thrown linearly to you, or an outfielder catching a pop fly. These systems are relatively easy to assess and estimate. They involve no changes in velocity (as in the throw) or only a single acceleration (as in the pop fly). These are relatively simple things even for the average human to "catch" (i.e. predict the time for). Now imagine catching a ball thrown to you that is tethered to two springs of differing magnitude, and also tethered to another ball that has been thrown in a different direction and time. Even if one could describe all the forces involved, the dynamics of the ball are not at all intuitive without detailed quantification, and reliance on models.<BR/><BR/>Coupled together with the fact that as you say, qunatitative models are hardly possible for societal events, it makes it pretty tough to understand even forces involved much less timing.Kendall Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17347999421000858925noreply@blogger.com